LISA DESJARDINS: Democrats may have an advantage in North Carolina, but that's just one of a dozen competitive Senate races this year, according to The Cook Political Report.

They rate which party is favored currently, and you can see that in shades of Republican red, Democratic blue, or the toss-ups there in yellow.

These 12 seats will likely determine the future of the Senate.

And of them, Republicans are on defense in the majority, or eight of those seats.

But to regain control of the Senate, Democrats need to pick up four seats overall.

It's a rugged political map, and to help us navigate, I'm joined by Jessica Taylor of The Cook Political Report.

Jessica, let's just start off right now, 48 days to go, would you rather be a Senate Democrat or a Senate Republican?

JESSICA TAYLOR, The Cook Political Report: The map still is tilted toward Republicans because they -- Democrats are trying to target seats in states that Trump won by double digits.

But if you look at the political momentum, it's on Democrats' side, and that's why they are so competitive in these seats.

So, again, I think I'd rather be a Democrat in this environment right now, but the math still favors Republicans.

LISA DESJARDINS: As you're saying, Trump won in most of these states in 2024, yet his disapproval rating right now hovers right around 60 percent.

It's getting very close to that.

How do you see the ways that he helps Republicans versus the ways he may be hurting them?

JESSICA TAYLOR: When I watched that midterm convention last week and he said pretend, I'm on the ballot, I think Democrats were just rejoicing, because that's the message they want.

We see in polling there was the CNN poll last week in Maine, where Susan Collins is on the -- is in the political fight of her life, which she survived before.

But 45 percent of voters said their vote is a reflection on President Trump, is trying to send a message to President Trump.

If you're Susan Collins, those are numbers you don't want to hear.

The only way that voters can send a message of being unhappy with this current White House and the president's policies is to vote against his party.

And that's why we're seeing states like Iowa and Texas that are so competitive, Alaska, Ohio, states that Trump won by double digits are now at the crux of the competitive Senate map.

LISA DESJARDINS: And Republicans are spending in some weird places.

You mentioned Texas, for example.

I'm having conversations in the U.S.

Senate with MAGA Republicans who are worried about Kansas.

JESSICA TAYLOR: Yes.

LISA DESJARDINS: My question for you is, how much is the map expanding for Democrats right now?

And do they have the muscle, do they have the money to take advantage of that?

JESSICA TAYLOR: Well, Republican -- well, Democrats also can't overlook the places that they're on defense.

Michigan is central.

They -- again they want to be adding seats.

They need to net four seats.

You can't be subtracting Senate seats.

This week, we just moved New Hampshire into the toss-up column.

That's a state that Kamala Harris carried by a less than three points, but it's one where Republicans have a unique recruit there in former Senator John E. Sununu, who is from the state's most famous political family.

And so that's a seat -- that's a state... LISA DESJARDINS: He's going up against a Democratic congressman also with a well-known name, Chris Pappas.

JESSICA TAYLOR: Right.

But that's a state where we see MAGA Inc.

money coming in.

They -- it's one of their top reservations.

Michigan, they feel like they have a real chance because Abdul El-Sayed, Democrats -- or Republicans are really demonizing him and making him the central -- central to their attacks.

So, that's a much closer race than both -- than Democrats would like right now.

So you still have places where Democrats are on defense, so they can't take their eye off the ball.

LISA DESJARDINS: But is the map expanding now for Democrats?

We're going to come back to that.

So we know Democrats, they have something that they have got to protect.

But is the map expanding and do they have the resources to make -- take advantage of that?

JESSICA TAYLOR: I mean, the Republican money edge is real, but it's coming from super PAC money, and so candidates like James Talarico in Texas, even though we have seen the main Senate super PACs and a leadership fund, their Texas PAC has put over more than 60 million in reservations.

I'm looking at what the candidates are spending there.

They get cheaper ad rates.

LISA DESJARDINS: Right.

JESSICA TAYLOR: So I think the map, it has expanded certainly since last year, when I would not have said that Democrats were in contention for the majority at all, and they are right now.

LISA DESJARDINS: How worried are Republicans, do you think, about losing the majority?

We still have some time before the election.

But ballots are have gone out in some states.

JESSICA TAYLOR: I think they are very worried just when you would look at the trajectory of the environment and when you would look at -- they did not think in the spring when I was talking with strategists that the war would still be going on, that they would still have gas prices that are this high, diesel prices at record high.

You mentioned Kansas.

It's similar to me in a lot of ways like Iowa, where you have agriculture prices that are really hurting Republican voters there.

And so you see Republican voters on the defense -- or Republican lawmakers on the defense over beef, over fertilizer prices.

So it's a really sort of unique environment that is harming Republicans, and it all ties back to the Iran war, really.

LISA DESJARDINS: In our last few seconds, what are you watching in the next month or so to determine the final shape of these races?

JESSICA TAYLOR: Does the money that Republicans are pouring in, is it moving it?

Is it the money or the message that is going to determine this?

If it's the message, Democrats have that on their side.

But Democrats also -- they might need to narrow that money advantage.

Are -- is there enough enthusiasm on their side that their donors kick in enough?

LISA DESJARDINS: Jessica Taylor of The Cook Political Report, thank you for having your head completely in the game and helping us with it.

JESSICA TAYLOR: Thanks, Lisa.